Under the dual pressure of the "dual carbon" goal and global food security, the strategic industry of agricultural chemicals is undergoing profound reshaping. Overcapacity and geopolitical risks coexist, and ensuring supply and stable prices are intertwined with green transformation. A transformation from a "supply guarantee ballast stone" to a "green new engine" has begun.
1, The global market is heating up, and China is firmly sitting in a 'price depression'
By 2025, the global market size for fertilizers and pesticides will reach 1378.9 billion yuan, with China accounting for approximately 303.4 billion yuan. It is expected that the global market will reach 1.871 trillion yuan by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.46%. The Chinese agricultural inputs market has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan (with fertilizers accounting for 58% and pesticides accounting for 22%). During the spring plowing period in 2026, China will become a "price depression" in the global fertilizer market, with sufficient supply and stable prices.
2, Nitrogen fertilizer: innovative high production capacity, balancing supply and export
The expected effective production capacity of urea in 2026 is 77.5 million tons, with a production of 76.5 million tons, both reaching historical highs. During the spring plowing period, the daily output was 216900 tons, and the operating rate was 86.63%. But if all the devices are put into operation, the contradiction between supply and demand will deepen. The export quota for urea in 2026 is only 3.3 million tons, and new quotas will be suspended during the spring plowing period to prioritize domestic supply.
3, Potassium fertilizer: supply chain breakthrough in geopolitical game
The global potassium salt reserves are highly concentrated (Canada, Belarus, and Russia account for 68.2%, while China only has 5.2%), with an import dependency of over 60%. By 2025, Russia and Belarus will reduce their production by a total of 1.3-1.5 million tons. China's breakthrough path: ① Laos base - Asia Potassium International has a production capacity of 3 million tons, with Chinese enterprises building a total of 3.5 million tons per year, making Laos the second largest source of potassium chloride imports for China (accounting for 18.51%); ② The large contract locks in $348 per ton (CFR), maintaining a global "price depression". The average price of potassium chloride in January 2026 is 3295 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 27.52%.
4, Phosphate fertilizers and pesticides: demand pressure, export 'anti internalization'
In 2025, the domestic phosphate fertilizer production capacity will be 22.7 million tons (converted to pure), with a production of 18.5 million tons and guaranteed supply. However, the price of sulfur raw materials has significantly increased (in March, the price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 41% compared to before the holiday). In terms of pesticides, China's glyphosate production capacity accounts for 68.6% of the global total (810000 tons/year). Starting from April 2026, the export tax rebate for raw materials such as glyphosate will be cancelled, and the industry's "anti internalization" will deepen.
5, Policy Reshaping: Low Carbon Transformation and Changes in Export Patterns
Multiple policies will be implemented in 2026: energy consumption assessment will shift towards dual control of carbon emissions; Comprehensive implementation of CBAM in the European Union; The No. 1 central document clearly promotes the transformation of fertilizer from "consumption" to "efficiency and green", giving priority to six types of green products such as bio organic fertilizer and slow and controlled release fertilizer. In terms of export pattern, India's global bidding for 2.6 million tons of urea has no one to quote due to the large price difference; China's 3.3 million ton export quota prioritizes the protection of ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America.
6, High end transformation: from "selling products" to "selling solutions"
Product greenization and functionalization: The seven department stable growth plan promotes the efficient and specialized development of slow-release fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, etc; Leading enterprises such as Xinyangfeng are building a green product system centered around functional fertilizers.
Green ammonia and green alcohol lead the zero carbon transformation: the installed capacity of wind and solar power accounts for 47.3%, historically surpassing thermal power. Using green electricity to produce hydrogen and then producing green ammonia and green alcohol has become an important path to solve the bottleneck of new energy consumption.
List of Core Highlights
Global market warming: The global fertilizer and pesticide market is expected to reach 1378.9 billion yuan by 2025 and 187.1 billion yuan by 2032, CAGR 4.46%
China's' Price Depression ': The most stable fertilizer price depression in the world during spring plowing, providing strong support for food security and ensuring supply
New high in nitrogen fertilizer production capacity: urea production capacity of 77.5 million tons and output of 76.5 million tons in 2026, both reaching historical highs
Breakthrough in potassium fertilizer supply chain: Laos base forms 3.5 million tons of production capacity, big contract locks in $348/ton "price depression"
Anti internal competition in pesticide exports: Export tax rebates for raw materials such as glyphosate ammonium have been cancelled, and China accounts for 68.6% of global glyphosate production capacity
Dual control of carbon emissions: nitrogen fertilizer industry takes the lead in being included in the assessment, green ammonia and green alcohol become a new track for transformation
Powerful promotion of policies: No. 1 central document defines the road map for volume reduction and efficiency increase, and six types of green fertilizers receive priority support
Under the dual pressure of the "dual carbon" goal and global food security, the strategic industry of agricultural chemicals is undergoing profound reshaping. Overcapacity and geopolitical risks coexist, and ensuring supply and stable prices are intertwined with green transformation. A transformation from a "supply guarantee ballast stone" to a "green new engine" has begun.
1, The global market is heating up, and China is firmly sitting in a 'price depression'
By 2025, the global market size for fertilizers and pesticides will reach 1378.9 billion yuan, with China accounting for approximately 303.4 billion yuan. It is expected that the global market will reach 1.871 trillion yuan by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.46%. The Chinese agricultural inputs market has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan (with fertilizers accounting for 58% and pesticides accounting for 22%). During the spring plowing period in 2026, China will become a "price depression" in the global fertilizer market, with sufficient supply and stable prices.
2, Nitrogen fertilizer: innovative high production capacity, balancing supply and export
The expected effective production capacity of urea in 2026 is 77.5 million tons, with a production of 76.5 million tons, both reaching historical highs. During the spring plowing period, the daily output was 216900 tons, and the operating rate was 86.63%. But if all the devices are put into operation, the contradiction between supply and demand will deepen. The export quota for urea in 2026 is only 3.3 million tons, and new quotas will be suspended during the spring plowing period to prioritize domestic supply.
3, Potassium fertilizer: supply chain breakthrough in geopolitical game
The global potassium salt reserves are highly concentrated (Canada, Belarus, and Russia account for 68.2%, while China only has 5.2%), with an import dependency of over 60%. By 2025, Russia and Belarus will reduce their production by a total of 1.3-1.5 million tons. China's breakthrough path: ① Laos base - Asia Potassium International has a production capacity of 3 million tons, with Chinese enterprises building a total of 3.5 million tons per year, making Laos the second largest source of potassium chloride imports for China (accounting for 18.51%); ② The large contract locks in $348 per ton (CFR), maintaining a global "price depression". The average price of potassium chloride in January 2026 is 3295 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 27.52%.
4, Phosphate fertilizers and pesticides: demand pressure, export 'anti internalization'
In 2025, the domestic phosphate fertilizer production capacity will be 22.7 million tons (converted to pure), with a production of 18.5 million tons and guaranteed supply. However, the price of sulfur raw materials has significantly increased (in March, the price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 41% compared to before the holiday). In terms of pesticides, China's glyphosate production capacity accounts for 68.6% of the global total (810000 tons/year). Starting from April 2026, the export tax rebate for raw materials such as glyphosate will be cancelled, and the industry's "anti internalization" will deepen.
5, Policy Reshaping: Low Carbon Transformation and Changes in Export Patterns
Multiple policies will be implemented in 2026: energy consumption assessment will shift towards dual control of carbon emissions; Comprehensive implementation of CBAM in the European Union; The No. 1 central document clearly promotes the transformation of fertilizer from "consumption" to "efficiency and green", giving priority to six types of green products such as bio organic fertilizer and slow and controlled release fertilizer. In terms of export pattern, India's global bidding for 2.6 million tons of urea has no one to quote due to the large price difference; China's 3.3 million ton export quota prioritizes the protection of ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America.
6, High end transformation: from "selling products" to "selling solutions"
Product greenization and functionalization: The seven department stable growth plan promotes the efficient and specialized development of slow-release fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, etc; Leading enterprises such as Xinyangfeng are building a green product system centered around functional fertilizers.
Green ammonia and green alcohol lead the zero carbon transformation: the installed capacity of wind and solar power accounts for 47.3%, historically surpassing thermal power. Using green electricity to produce hydrogen and then producing green ammonia and green alcohol has become an important path to solve the bottleneck of new energy consumption.
List of Core Highlights
Global market warming: The global fertilizer and pesticide market is expected to reach 1378.9 billion yuan by 2025 and 187.1 billion yuan by 2032, CAGR 4.46%
China's' Price Depression ': The most stable fertilizer price depression in the world during spring plowing, providing strong support for food security and ensuring supply
New high in nitrogen fertilizer production capacity: urea production capacity of 77.5 million tons and output of 76.5 million tons in 2026, both reaching historical highs
Breakthrough in potassium fertilizer supply chain: Laos base forms 3.5 million tons of production capacity, big contract locks in $348/ton "price depression"
Anti internal competition in pesticide exports: Export tax rebates for raw materials such as glyphosate ammonium have been cancelled, and China accounts for 68.6% of global glyphosate production capacity
Dual control of carbon emissions: nitrogen fertilizer industry takes the lead in being included in the assessment, green ammonia and green alcohol become a new track for transformation
Powerful promotion of policies: No. 1 central document defines the road map for volume reduction and efficiency increase, and six types of green fertilizers receive priority support
